Post by account_disabled on Feb 18, 2024 3:19:30 GMT -6
The President of the Government has on his office table an ambitious survey carried out 'ad hoc' by a prestigious external sociologist. It is the only large-scale survey that the Popular Party has commissioned so far. The conclusion of the study is that the result of the European elections is going to be a 'photo finish'. The key will be abstention. The macro survey has been prepared and analyzed by one of the demographic experts with the best reputation and track record. The PP has turned to him to commission this ambitious preliminary field work, as well as the interpretation of the results. Visits to La Moncloa Mariano Rajoy has also wanted to use it for these European elections in which the President of the Government has so much at stake: they are the first examination of the citizens since he won the general elections. The head of the Executive has met with this specialist discreetly in La Moncloa in recent weeks, to learn first-hand what the situation in the country is, how the PP is in terms of voting intentions and, ultimately, what the keys to winning the elections. That is to say, in addition to the frequent analyzes that Pedro Arriola carries out for the president, other experts in demoscopy have also visited Rajoy in La Moncloa to explain their analyzes and conclusions.
Macrosurvey for the Europeans Confidencial Digital has been able to access the results of the macro-survey that Mariano Rajoy has on the table, which has been prepared and analyzed by the aforementioned sociologist hired by the PP. These are the main data Phone Number List of the survey: -- Very close result . The winner of the European Championships will emerge from the polls with a narrow victory. PP or PSOE, the only two parties with a chance of winning, will surpass the opponent by just a few thousand votes. “Everything is very open,” is the message he conveyed to the President of the Government. -- Great volatility of the vote . Another conclusion he reaches is that, in these elections, a significant number of Spaniards will change their vote from one party to another compared to what they did in the general elections. The PP, therefore, is the one that will lose the most support, since it was the majority party in the November 2011 elections. [OBJECT]-- Few votes change the result a lot . The final result is unexpected. Just a few thousand votes will decide the winner. And, furthermore, if a party that now does not have representation enters the European Parliament: Ciudadanos, Vox, Podemos or Equo, among others. Abstention greater than 60% -- Historical abstention . The European elections on the 25th will leave a fact for history: the expected abstention is greater than 60%. That is, less than 40% of Spaniards will go to the polling stations (in the previous European elections, participation was 44.9%). Abstention, the demographic expert predicts, especially harms the PP. Hence, the objective of this campaign is to mobilize its electorate by visiting “ town to town .
The popular ones have also received the warning that during the last week they will play for victory. -- Four million undecided people . The expert also told Rajoy that, as of today, a third of Spaniards who are going to vote on the 25th have not decided which ballot they will put in the ballot box. In numbers, some four million voters are undecided at this moment. In these two weeks, therefore, there will be an important movement of votes between parties. The campaign is decisive -- The campaign will be decisive . The message raised to the president is that the elections will be won or lost in the campaign. The sociologist gives two examples: 1) The PSOE started with a ten point disadvantage compared to the PP in the last Andalusian elections and during the campaign it managed to mobilize its entire electorate and retain the victory. 2) A third of Catalans decided to vote during the electoral campaign. CiU and, especially, ERC were the ones who managed to mobilize their voters in the last two weeks. The danger of Vox for the PP One of the main problems for the PP is the existence of Vox . According to the demographic data that Rajoy has received, eight out of every ten voters of the party of Alejo Vidal-Quadras and Santiago Abascal are men and women who voted for the PP in the general elections. The PP, therefore, will leave a few thousand votes that will go to that party, which aspires to get a seat. Some votes that can be decisive. The Champions League final Another of the risks that the PP faces on the 25th, Sunday, is the dispute of the Champions League final . On Saturday night, prior to the polls, Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid will play a match that will be attended by at least 25,000 Madrid residents.